Washing the Sox
There is no question, in 2005 the magic that lead to the Red Sox first WS championship in 86 was washed out of them. The insight displayed by Theo and he front office that landed Cabrera and Mientkiewicz in time to provide solid defense and timely hitting for the stretch run disappeared. Was it only luck? Renteria was a bust and there's considerable debate as to whether Clement is salvageable (forget the playoffs, his second half decline is now a three year trend). Only the Graffanino pickup really paid off for the Sox.
While hopes ran high at the All Star break it was obvious that only a healthy, 2004-form Schilling would help the club. They managed to come from behind a few times but, more often than not, their bullpen blinked before their opponents' and close games were few and far between. It's no surprise that the Red Sox led the league in both 7+ run wins and 7+ run losses.
This year is concluding with a disappointing Hot Stove season. It's not a horrible offseason, just a very disappointing one. The Sox started well, landing Beckett, Lowell, and Mota for a package of prospects (Sanchez and Ramirez appear to be two who will make their mark in Florida). However, it's been steadily down hill from there. Van Buren may be a big help in the pen, though he struggled with his control in the majors. If he finds his pitches his K/9 and K/BB numbers suggest he'll be a plus setup man. By all accounts Loretta will be a solid 2B in the field and at bat, though whether he's a considerable upgrade over what Graffanino's second half is doubtful.
The deals that were not made are what really makes the offseason disappointing. Losing Damon without having a deal in place hurts. Simply put, when he scored the Sox won and he scored a lot (averaging ~120 runs per season). He was the catalyst for the Sox. It's not a disaster considering the $52/4yr deal it took to take Damon away. He has begun his decline and by the end of the deal he won't be a bargain (he's not now, either).
Missing out on Burnett is too bad though I think he may be the most overrated pitcher of the decade. Build, form, etc may all be fantastic but he doesn't have "it". Bob Cousy coined the phrase "killer instinct" and it's what Burnett lacks. He appears lacsadasical during games. He would wilt in one of the bigger markets like Boston or New York. $55M/5yrs? Too much.
B.J. Ryan? He's only been a closer for one season, though he showed that he had the stuff to close in the AL East. He throws pitches by batters and is a fierce competitor. He is a real closer. The problem is that the Sox already have their closer of the future in Craig Hansen. Hansen has more pitches and unbelievable upside. There was no reason to sign Ryan for 5 years and the dollars were ridiculous.
Missing out on Troy Glaus is also too bad. His big bat would have helped pick up some of the offense lost when Damon skipped town (albeit by a different route) and he would be a good backup plan should Manny play elsewhere in 2006. However the price (Orlando Hudson and Biguel Bautista) is much more than the Sox could afford at this point.
The biggest problem with these deals is that most of them have gone directly to their competition. The Yuckies biggest holes were in their bullpen and CF. They've filled those well with Farnsworth, Villone, Dotel, and Damon and -- with one notable exception -- did not overpay. The Blue Jays put themselves on the map with two signings and now are poised to reshuffle the AL standings for the first time in almost a decade. The Jays' rotation of Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Lilly, and Towers will match the current Sox rotation with it's many health questions at the top.
The current moves remake the Sox as more of a pitching-and-defense team. With that in mind the potential pick up of Alex Gonzalez on a three year deal makes sense. He's a solid defender with an average bat for a middle infielder. The Sox have no one to take his place (save Pedroia, should he move back which is doubtful) and they'll need to prevent as many runs as possible. Lugo would provide more "game" -- both offensively and defensively -- but the cost will be high and the Sox have already given away a lot this offseason.
I'd like to see Millwood in the rotation if he really is beyond the elbow and shoulder problems that have slowed him in the past. The problem, again, will be length and dollars. It looks like it will take an expensive four or five year deal and that will leave the Sox short of cash in a much richer market next year. He comes with too many questions to make that commitment.
CF is a much bigger problem. The Sox lost on Encarnacion who just signed with the Cards. He would have been a great fourth outfielder if Damon signed, a suitable CF when he left, or corner guy if the Sox move Manny or Nixon. Perenally playoff OF Reggie Sanders has signed and the thin market is thinning. Forget Lucchino's suggestion that the offseason is not even to its midway point. When the market is sold out it does not matter how much time is left. Instead the question is how much you will have to pay and the answer, now, is much too much.
As constructed this team will be much like the team that began 2004. They will win their fair share of games. They will play slightly better than .500 and will be within striking distance of the top through the All Star game. But they will be uninspiring. There will be no one to get excited about unless Papelbon catches fire and begins to fulfill the promise we've seen. They will finish the season with 85-88 wins but watch the Yuckies pull steadily away as they take their first WS of the millenia. The Sox will be in a dog fight for second place in the East and for the WC with the A's.
While hopes ran high at the All Star break it was obvious that only a healthy, 2004-form Schilling would help the club. They managed to come from behind a few times but, more often than not, their bullpen blinked before their opponents' and close games were few and far between. It's no surprise that the Red Sox led the league in both 7+ run wins and 7+ run losses.
This year is concluding with a disappointing Hot Stove season. It's not a horrible offseason, just a very disappointing one. The Sox started well, landing Beckett, Lowell, and Mota for a package of prospects (Sanchez and Ramirez appear to be two who will make their mark in Florida). However, it's been steadily down hill from there. Van Buren may be a big help in the pen, though he struggled with his control in the majors. If he finds his pitches his K/9 and K/BB numbers suggest he'll be a plus setup man. By all accounts Loretta will be a solid 2B in the field and at bat, though whether he's a considerable upgrade over what Graffanino's second half is doubtful.
The deals that were not made are what really makes the offseason disappointing. Losing Damon without having a deal in place hurts. Simply put, when he scored the Sox won and he scored a lot (averaging ~120 runs per season). He was the catalyst for the Sox. It's not a disaster considering the $52/4yr deal it took to take Damon away. He has begun his decline and by the end of the deal he won't be a bargain (he's not now, either).
Missing out on Burnett is too bad though I think he may be the most overrated pitcher of the decade. Build, form, etc may all be fantastic but he doesn't have "it". Bob Cousy coined the phrase "killer instinct" and it's what Burnett lacks. He appears lacsadasical during games. He would wilt in one of the bigger markets like Boston or New York. $55M/5yrs? Too much.
B.J. Ryan? He's only been a closer for one season, though he showed that he had the stuff to close in the AL East. He throws pitches by batters and is a fierce competitor. He is a real closer. The problem is that the Sox already have their closer of the future in Craig Hansen. Hansen has more pitches and unbelievable upside. There was no reason to sign Ryan for 5 years and the dollars were ridiculous.
Missing out on Troy Glaus is also too bad. His big bat would have helped pick up some of the offense lost when Damon skipped town (albeit by a different route) and he would be a good backup plan should Manny play elsewhere in 2006. However the price (Orlando Hudson and Biguel Bautista) is much more than the Sox could afford at this point.
The biggest problem with these deals is that most of them have gone directly to their competition. The Yuckies biggest holes were in their bullpen and CF. They've filled those well with Farnsworth, Villone, Dotel, and Damon and -- with one notable exception -- did not overpay. The Blue Jays put themselves on the map with two signings and now are poised to reshuffle the AL standings for the first time in almost a decade. The Jays' rotation of Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Lilly, and Towers will match the current Sox rotation with it's many health questions at the top.
The current moves remake the Sox as more of a pitching-and-defense team. With that in mind the potential pick up of Alex Gonzalez on a three year deal makes sense. He's a solid defender with an average bat for a middle infielder. The Sox have no one to take his place (save Pedroia, should he move back which is doubtful) and they'll need to prevent as many runs as possible. Lugo would provide more "game" -- both offensively and defensively -- but the cost will be high and the Sox have already given away a lot this offseason.
I'd like to see Millwood in the rotation if he really is beyond the elbow and shoulder problems that have slowed him in the past. The problem, again, will be length and dollars. It looks like it will take an expensive four or five year deal and that will leave the Sox short of cash in a much richer market next year. He comes with too many questions to make that commitment.
CF is a much bigger problem. The Sox lost on Encarnacion who just signed with the Cards. He would have been a great fourth outfielder if Damon signed, a suitable CF when he left, or corner guy if the Sox move Manny or Nixon. Perenally playoff OF Reggie Sanders has signed and the thin market is thinning. Forget Lucchino's suggestion that the offseason is not even to its midway point. When the market is sold out it does not matter how much time is left. Instead the question is how much you will have to pay and the answer, now, is much too much.
As constructed this team will be much like the team that began 2004. They will win their fair share of games. They will play slightly better than .500 and will be within striking distance of the top through the All Star game. But they will be uninspiring. There will be no one to get excited about unless Papelbon catches fire and begins to fulfill the promise we've seen. They will finish the season with 85-88 wins but watch the Yuckies pull steadily away as they take their first WS of the millenia. The Sox will be in a dog fight for second place in the East and for the WC with the A's.
posted by Andy Vanasse at 9:01 AM
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