Silence breeds insanity

The last of the year is perhaps the only week of the year that baseball is closed for business. Sure, there are some deals consumated but they're primarily lower-level deals. The principals spend the holidays away from the office just like the rest of us so little of significance takes place.

In a frantic hot stove season the relative silence from the baseball offices gives rise to insanity. There are more rumored deals now than ever. Frustrated players like Miguel Tejada make comments about their frustration and instantly he becomes the face that launched a thousand rumors. Not surprisingly the deals are generally quite one-sided.

Another thing that happens is that rumors merge and distort. A perfect example of this is a new 4 team deal involving the Red Sox, Orioles, Mets, and D'Rays. It basically takes parts of separate proposed deals that involved various combinations of these teams individually. The basics of this deal has the Sox landing Tejada and Garthright; Mets get Manny; Orioles get Clement, Lugo, and Benson; D'Rays get lots of young arms. There are simply too many moving parts to this deal for it to happen. Every corner would love to see it (except perhaps the O's).

Should the Sox revive Lugo-for-Marte?

A year ago three of their top ten prospects were shortstops but a lot has changed since then. Renteria was a bust in Boston and shown the door to Atlanta. Hanley Ramirez is gone via the Beckett trade. Dustin Pedroia has crossed the infield to 2B and appears to be much more likely to stand out as a 2B than a SS at the MLB level. If I recall correctly, the next SS prospect was a then-19 year old kid who is long on raw potential but short on experience. The Sox are, obviously, without a shortstop for 2006 and the foreseeable future.

The Renteria deal brought Andy Marte to Boston. He would appear to have can't-miss written all over him. According to Baseball Prospectus his closest historical peers are Adrian Beltre and Brooks Robinson. Elsewhere he's been compared to power hitting, slick fielding Matt Williams. Given those kind of credentials it will be difficult to keep him sitting behind Lowell for two years and it makes little sense to move him around the field. Perhaps Lowell could move and enhance his value, though he is a proven gold glove third baseman.

The downside to Marte is his suspected UCL (elbow) problem. According to some sources the suspicion about the injury scuttled at least one prior deal for the one-time Braves prospect. The Sox have denied the rumor though BaseballProspectus.com thought it valid enough to repeat it later. What may lend credence to this rumor (or may have spawned it) is Marte's lackluster performance at the end of the year. He batted only .140 with 7 BB in 57 at bats for Atlanta, primarily at the end of the season. Moreover, he has struggled considerably in winter ball, hitting only .234 with 2 HR and 9RBI in 33 games.

The big problem with dealing prospects is that you do not know what you're giving up for several years. Marte could become the Beltre/Robinson/Williams type player that he has been projected to be. In that case a little patience would benefit the Sox considering the prospects that could begin to thrive in 2007/08 (Papelbon, Lester, Hansen, Delcarmen, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Moss, Murphy, and potentially Marte). The Sox could be in a similar position to the 2005 White Sox whose young talent has positioned them well to be the first repeat WS winner of the millenium.

In Lugo, the Sox would acquire a solid defender whose offensive capabilities are similar to their recently departed shortstop. Also, his career 3.82 pitches/AB ratio is comparable to former leadoff man Damon. The drawback is that Lugo is now 30 and just enjoyed his best season. Statistically speaking he is unlikely to repeat the .295/.355/39SB line that makes him an attractive leadoff hitter. He is also unsigned beyond 2006 and could be very costly if the Sox were unable to broker a longer term deal.

In the end, it seems that Lugo-for-Marte makes sense only if the deal is contingent upon a two- or three-year extension for Lugo. He is a known commodity with leadoff potential and solid defense for a club that appears to be moving in a pitching-and-defense direction. He provides the Sox several years to develop or attract a shortstop, while the Sox already have that at 3B in Lowell/Youkillis.

Manny-for-Miggy back on?

More conflicting reports on whether there really is potential for a swap of the Sox' and Orioles top run producers. According to the Boston Herald the O's are rethinking their decision to deal Tejada. “There is absolutely no deal we find acceptable to trade this very special player to another team,” an Orioles official said yesterday. Calling this a change of direction may be an overstatement; in reality they never wanted to deal him and they only listened to offers (never sought them) after Tejada's infamous "change of scenary" interview. Across the newstand, the Boston Globe suggests that the O's may be calling for final bids on Tejada this week in an attempt to resolve whether to keep him or trade him.

If the Cubs, Angels, and Red Sox are the leading suitors for Tejada then things may be breaking the Sox way for the first time this offseason. The Angels do not appear to be a match for what Baltimore needs in the short term and the Cubs may not be willing to deal.

My brother-in-law lives in the shadows of Camden Yards. He says that he will not renew his ticket package if the Orioles deal Tejada, especially if Bedard is part of the deal. Whether or not he carries through with that statement it certainly makes clear that the Orioles need to return a bona fide All Star in a deal for Tejada so a package of prospects from the Angels seems very unlikely.

It appears that the Cubs and Orioles are both backing away from rumored deals that featured Tejada and Mark Prior (either in a two team deal or a three team deal that included Oakland's Zito). There is considerable backlash (scroll down) against this deal in Chicago and Hendry may back off because of that alone. Similarly, dealing Bedard along with Tejada would go against the BAL organization's public statements that the future glory of the franchise lies on the shoulders of their young pitchers.

With the Tejada's most agressive suitor backing away, the rumor mill has cranked up a notch on a Sox-Orioles swap. The latest believable iteration has Manny and Clement headed down I-95 for Tejada. The problem with this deal is the $22M salary difference in what is owed to the Boston duo. The Sox could help bridge the gap by agreeing to take on Manny's deferred money ($11M due after his two option years). Another alternative would be to deal Arroyo, who will probably earn less than half of Clement's $9.75M in arbitration, instead of Clement.

Washing the Sox

There is no question, in 2005 the magic that lead to the Red Sox first WS championship in 86 was washed out of them. The insight displayed by Theo and he front office that landed Cabrera and Mientkiewicz in time to provide solid defense and timely hitting for the stretch run disappeared. Was it only luck? Renteria was a bust and there's considerable debate as to whether Clement is salvageable (forget the playoffs, his second half decline is now a three year trend). Only the Graffanino pickup really paid off for the Sox.

While hopes ran high at the All Star break it was obvious that only a healthy, 2004-form Schilling would help the club. They managed to come from behind a few times but, more often than not, their bullpen blinked before their opponents' and close games were few and far between. It's no surprise that the Red Sox led the league in both 7+ run wins and 7+ run losses.

This year is concluding with a disappointing Hot Stove season. It's not a horrible offseason, just a very disappointing one. The Sox started well, landing Beckett, Lowell, and Mota for a package of prospects (Sanchez and Ramirez appear to be two who will make their mark in Florida). However, it's been steadily down hill from there. Van Buren may be a big help in the pen, though he struggled with his control in the majors. If he finds his pitches his K/9 and K/BB numbers suggest he'll be a plus setup man. By all accounts Loretta will be a solid 2B in the field and at bat, though whether he's a considerable upgrade over what Graffanino's second half is doubtful.

The deals that were not made are what really makes the offseason disappointing. Losing Damon without having a deal in place hurts. Simply put, when he scored the Sox won and he scored a lot (averaging ~120 runs per season). He was the catalyst for the Sox. It's not a disaster considering the $52/4yr deal it took to take Damon away. He has begun his decline and by the end of the deal he won't be a bargain (he's not now, either).

Missing out on Burnett is too bad though I think he may be the most overrated pitcher of the decade. Build, form, etc may all be fantastic but he doesn't have "it". Bob Cousy coined the phrase "killer instinct" and it's what Burnett lacks. He appears lacsadasical during games. He would wilt in one of the bigger markets like Boston or New York. $55M/5yrs? Too much.

B.J. Ryan? He's only been a closer for one season, though he showed that he had the stuff to close in the AL East. He throws pitches by batters and is a fierce competitor. He is a real closer. The problem is that the Sox already have their closer of the future in Craig Hansen. Hansen has more pitches and unbelievable upside. There was no reason to sign Ryan for 5 years and the dollars were ridiculous.

Missing out on Troy Glaus is also too bad. His big bat would have helped pick up some of the offense lost when Damon skipped town (albeit by a different route) and he would be a good backup plan should Manny play elsewhere in 2006. However the price (Orlando Hudson and Biguel Bautista) is much more than the Sox could afford at this point.

The biggest problem with these deals is that most of them have gone directly to their competition. The Yuckies biggest holes were in their bullpen and CF. They've filled those well with Farnsworth, Villone, Dotel, and Damon and -- with one notable exception -- did not overpay. The Blue Jays put themselves on the map with two signings and now are poised to reshuffle the AL standings for the first time in almost a decade. The Jays' rotation of Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Lilly, and Towers will match the current Sox rotation with it's many health questions at the top.

The current moves remake the Sox as more of a pitching-and-defense team. With that in mind the potential pick up of Alex Gonzalez on a three year deal makes sense. He's a solid defender with an average bat for a middle infielder. The Sox have no one to take his place (save Pedroia, should he move back which is doubtful) and they'll need to prevent as many runs as possible. Lugo would provide more "game" -- both offensively and defensively -- but the cost will be high and the Sox have already given away a lot this offseason.

I'd like to see Millwood in the rotation if he really is beyond the elbow and shoulder problems that have slowed him in the past. The problem, again, will be length and dollars. It looks like it will take an expensive four or five year deal and that will leave the Sox short of cash in a much richer market next year. He comes with too many questions to make that commitment.

CF is a much bigger problem. The Sox lost on Encarnacion who just signed with the Cards. He would have been a great fourth outfielder if Damon signed, a suitable CF when he left, or corner guy if the Sox move Manny or Nixon. Perenally playoff OF Reggie Sanders has signed and the thin market is thinning. Forget Lucchino's suggestion that the offseason is not even to its midway point. When the market is sold out it does not matter how much time is left. Instead the question is how much you will have to pay and the answer, now, is much too much.

As constructed this team will be much like the team that began 2004. They will win their fair share of games. They will play slightly better than .500 and will be within striking distance of the top through the All Star game. But they will be uninspiring. There will be no one to get excited about unless Papelbon catches fire and begins to fulfill the promise we've seen. They will finish the season with 85-88 wins but watch the Yuckies pull steadily away as they take their first WS of the millenia. The Sox will be in a dog fight for second place in the East and for the WC with the A's.

Glaus, Lugo, and...

The Sox are reportedly back on track with the D'Backs trying to land Troy Glaus. The reports are conflicting on this. Several say that the Jays are further along in their negotiations. However, one of those 'unidentified sources close to the teams' says that he thinks Glaus will land in Boston. Glaus could be a solid bat in the lineup hitting in the five hole, or batting behind Ortiz if Manny gets moved. There is no word on whom the D'Backs want in return. It's worth noting here that GM Byrnes is very familiar with the Sox farm system and is reportedly taking a win-through-development approach in ARI...

The Sox are also said to be talking to the D'Rays about several players. Julio Lugo remains on their wishlist as does Aubrey Huff (assuming the D'Rays deal falls through). A new addition to the list is Joey Gathright. Gathright is a young (24) CF who has no chance of playing every day with Baldelli, Crawford, and Delmon Young all healthy. There is lots of competition for Gathright. The biggest contender is Florida who apparently has no one left on their MLB roster. He is, however, the one I'd let get away. His strikeout rate is too high and he does not see enough pitches. Besides, he'd be a guy the Sox would have in their control for a long time and who would potentially block Ellsbury. One of the two could move to a corner OF position but the Sox would suffer a power shortage if that took place. Besides, the price for Gathright will be very high.

Wells name has finally started popping up again. One ESPN-based iteration has him going to SDP with Padres prospects headed to the D'Rays who, in turn, send Lugo to the Sox. This might be the best of the bunch. A wishful rumor has Wells and Shoppach going west for recently acquired 1B Adrian Gonzalez. If this one happens it's time to hang it up. Besides, how many Sox catchers to the Padres need?

With all this it's important to remember that we're two days from Christmas. Rumors will be like gift lists for Santa for the next few days: lots of hopes but not necessarily any fulfillment. Lucchino is on his way to San Diego for the holidays which may slow down (or halt) the process.

A few more reasons not to panic

Derreck Lee. Mark Mulder. Jon Garland. Barry Zito. Julio Lugo.

No, these are not players the Sox necessarily need to make a deal on, though I would not complain about that. They are players who are in their contract year, however. Twelve months from now the Sox could be making a play for any or all of them to plug the holes they currently have. If the Sox take a conservative approach to their current limitations they may limp their way to a third place finish in the AL East this year but have ample cash available to land two or three of these guys with an aggressive approach next Hot Stove season.

Damon's departure need only hurt the Sox for one year. After that they will be well positioned for both short term and long term solutions that bring championship baseball back to Fenway. If the Cubs, ChiSox, A's, or D'Rays decide that they're out of the running early enough the Sox may also be able to make trade deadline deals for one or more of them and hammer out a deal before they hit the market. In the current highest-bidder free agent sweepstakes a mid-season extension may not be likely but it's a possibility given the financial resources not ceded to Damon, Renteria, and other former Sox.

What to do with Manny?

There are two schools of thought on Manny now that Damon is gone. One is that the Sox cannot afford to let him go because they've already lost too much offense. The other is that moving Manny may be the only way to begin to recoup some of their losses. I'm split between the two.

The New York Post claims that Manny is surely angry with the Sox. He (or rather his wife) was tired of the rock star status he had in Boston and he wanted out. Now with all his homies gone from the clubhouse his frustrations are mounting. If this is the case I'd move in favor of moving Manny. I'm not sure they'll get fair value in return but an unhappy Manny has shown himself to be nearly meaningless.

A few interesting possibilities have already been thrown out for Manny that help the Sox fill some of their holes. Lastings Milledge's name has resurfaced considering the Sox need at CF and the Mets long term commitment to Beltran. Package him with Kaz Matsui (I'm not wild about him but he fills a need) and the Sox might be onto something.

A second potential deal would be with the Halos. The latest iteration has the Sox sending Manny to the Angels for gold glove CF Darin Erstad and SS Orlando Cabrera. Again the Sox fill two holes and the money is an even swap. This might make sense for LAA, too, since they already have high prospects who could step in at both 1B (currently manned by Erstad) and SS.

Potentially the most intriguing deal is one thrown around by Ken Rosenthal. He reports that the Cubbies are feverishly working on a deal for Tejada but the deal is hitting snags because both sides are reluctant to throw in young talent. Enter the Red Sox in a potential three-way deal. In this scenario the Sox send Manny to the O's and Tejada goes to the Cubs. In return the Sox get pitching (possibly Prior), CF Corey Patterson, and SS Ronny Cedeno. If Prior is part of the deal I'd take this in a heartbeat. Admittedly there's some question about his health but his credentials are amazing. Doing a deal like this would give the Sox four solid young arms upon which to build for the future (Beckett, Prior, Papelbon, Lester), half of which have solid MLB experience that suggests they'd payoff this year. Also, this deal would make both Arroyo and Clement expendable or allow the Sox the flexibility to send Papelbon to the bullpen for more seasoning at the MLB level.

In an unrelated note, the Sox appear to be going after Kevin Millwood. I have mixed feelings on this. He lead the league in ERA while pitching in CLE. BUT a deal for him is said to be in the "AJ Burnett" area ($55M/5yr). Oh, yeah, his agent is Scott Boras who coveniently omits the fact that Millwood is four or five years older than Burnett and no longer eating innings the way he did three years ago. He'd be a good stablemate but is probably too expensive considering the length of contract he wants. Three years with an option? Maybe. I'd still be worried that the Sox rotation would be all RHP.

Good Riddance

Don't miss the Kevin Hench article on the departure of Damon. Not only does he point out some interesting stats that should make the Yuckies rethink their "steal" (e.g., .342 OBP away from Fenway vs. .383 at home while playing in his prime), it's absolutely hilarious.

The Rest of the Off Season

The Sox may, as Larry Lucchino said, have nearly four months left to this offseason but the time left to fill their holes at first, short, and center field is much shorter than that. This team needs time to come together. With so little of their team left from 2005 they will need time to work together and begin to anticipate one anothers' moves. With that in mind here are three moves that seem reasonable for the Sox to complete and answer these questions.

Tony Graffanino to St. Louis for Jason Marquis
Marquis' control was off by the end of the year and he was the odd man out in LaRussa's playoff rotation. With the signing of sidney Ponson the Cardinals made at least one spot in their rotation expendable and Marquis would seem to be the one. The Cards need an everyday 2B and at last check the Sox had at least three of them. Given a choice Alex Cora would be the best to go but may not be enough to budge Marquis. Hence Graffanino, the odd man out before he accepted arbitration, could be the bait the Sox did not know they had. Marquis' K/9 and K/BB ratios don't inspire a lot of confidence but he has managed to average double-digit wins and eat up 200IP. Decent stats for a #4/5 starter.

David Wells to San Diego for CF Dave Robers and 1B Adrian Gonzalez
The SDP deal with the Rangers that sent Eaton and Otsuku to the Rangers made little sense to me because they gave up their best starter for a package including promising starter Young. But then it hit me that Gonzalez was in the deal. The Sox liked him earlier but did not match up well to pry him from TEX. The Sox considered Roberts earlier but he was not enough compensation for Wells -- a 15-game winner from the south side with great control. Gonzalez does not overly impress me but in a package with Roberts it might make sense for both sides. SDP will get a rotation presence who wants to pitch in San Diego and may help a guy like Young develop. The Sox get the LH 1B they wanted to compliment Youkillis and a short term solution in CF. If you can't get Damon could there be a better solution than the guy with The Stolen Base?

Sox Sign free agent SS Alex Gonzalez
He is not the best possible option at short but he is the most realistic. The Sox could overpay for a couple of years with an option and look to the future. With so much of the offense leaving the Sox need to concentrate on defense behind their pitching staff and Gonzo is the best option available.

If this all came together the lineup would probably be:
2B Loretta
1B Youkillis
DH Ortiz
LF Ramirez
3B Lowell
RF Nixon
C Varitek
RF Roberts
SS Gonzalez

'Tek could bat higher but I'd rather see him lower in the order to reduce his AB and save him for later in the season. Loretta has better OBP numbers than Damon that will climb further at Fenway. Hoyer indicated the Sox might have some "grinders" at the top of the order and "The Greek God of Walks" Youkillis seems to fit that bill. The table setters would be on base a respectable amount of time for Ortiz and Ramirez to knock them in and will wear down starters.

Go, Go, Go... Go Johnny, Go!

Johnny Damon signed a big money deal to play with the arch-rival Yuckies. So what? There is no question that Damon has been a fantastic leadoff hitter for the Red Sox. However, it appears that his success may well be due in part to the friendly confines of Fenway park. Prior to coming to Fenway is OBP was around .340 and it jumped to .360 or so with the Sox. Since Fenway bumps offensive stats 10-20% that's not a big surprise. Nor is it considerably better than some other Sox, like newcomer Loretta whose lifetime OBP a dozen points better than JohnnyD.

Going into the offseaon the Sox were operating with a perspective (yes, even with Theo at the helm) that:

1. Every player is replaceable.
2. Every player has a certain value in terms of AAV and length of contract.

We knew that the Sox would fix a price on Damon and not go beyond that. Shoot, if they would do it to the one of the top 5 pitchers in the history of baseball they would do it with Damon. Maybe the comparison is not that far off. It's pretty obvious that both Damon and Martinez signed deals with their respective NY teams that will carry them well beyond their prime. By the end of their respective contracts the fans in the seats will be bemoaning their presence or simply reminiscing about the past. In both cases there will be considerable concern about their weakening arm leading to more runs for opponents. Hmm... maybe the Sox took all this into consideration (scroll down).

Listening to the Sox press conference one thing became clear: Damon decided that being wined and dined was more important than loyalty of any kind. He got an offer that Boras liked -- $13M for four years sound remarkably like Furcal's deal that Boras touted for comparing leadoff guys -- and he ran with it. He never got back to the Sox and offered them a chance to meet or beat the deal. Would they? Maybe or maybe not. They certainly have some additional cash now that they are no longer paying the Rent.

At this point there's no reason to panic. The Yuckies will finish first. Again. Their 2006 lineup has roughly $120M guaranteed to the aging starting nine before you get to the rotation. In a year they have to address Sheffield. In a few more years both Damon and Matsui are done. Who do they have in the ranks. Right now folks think... no one. That's why they can't make any deals for talent, only for salary dumps like the Womack deal.

The Sox will be in a dogfight to make the playoffs this year... or even to finish second... unless something else dramatic happens. But Ellsbury might be taking Damon's place in 2007-08 and be considerably less expensive. Next year's market will probably yield a long term SS solution if Pedroia doesn't move back to short. Papelbon and Lester will be fighting with Schilling and Beckett to top the rotation. Foulke will be on his way out as Hansen and Delcarmen blow folks away at the end of the game.

Think five year plan. The Pats have.