Should the Sox revive Lugo-for-Marte?
A year ago three of their top ten prospects were shortstops but a lot has changed since then. Renteria was a bust in Boston and shown the door to Atlanta. Hanley Ramirez is gone via the Beckett trade. Dustin Pedroia has crossed the infield to 2B and appears to be much more likely to stand out as a 2B than a SS at the MLB level. If I recall correctly, the next SS prospect was a then-19 year old kid who is long on raw potential but short on experience. The Sox are, obviously, without a shortstop for 2006 and the foreseeable future.
The Renteria deal brought Andy Marte to Boston. He would appear to have can't-miss written all over him. According to Baseball Prospectus his closest historical peers are Adrian Beltre and Brooks Robinson. Elsewhere he's been compared to power hitting, slick fielding Matt Williams. Given those kind of credentials it will be difficult to keep him sitting behind Lowell for two years and it makes little sense to move him around the field. Perhaps Lowell could move and enhance his value, though he is a proven gold glove third baseman.
The downside to Marte is his suspected UCL (elbow) problem. According to some sources the suspicion about the injury scuttled at least one prior deal for the one-time Braves prospect. The Sox have denied the rumor though BaseballProspectus.com thought it valid enough to repeat it later. What may lend credence to this rumor (or may have spawned it) is Marte's lackluster performance at the end of the year. He batted only .140 with 7 BB in 57 at bats for Atlanta, primarily at the end of the season. Moreover, he has struggled considerably in winter ball, hitting only .234 with 2 HR and 9RBI in 33 games.
The big problem with dealing prospects is that you do not know what you're giving up for several years. Marte could become the Beltre/Robinson/Williams type player that he has been projected to be. In that case a little patience would benefit the Sox considering the prospects that could begin to thrive in 2007/08 (Papelbon, Lester, Hansen, Delcarmen, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Moss, Murphy, and potentially Marte). The Sox could be in a similar position to the 2005 White Sox whose young talent has positioned them well to be the first repeat WS winner of the millenium.
In Lugo, the Sox would acquire a solid defender whose offensive capabilities are similar to their recently departed shortstop. Also, his career 3.82 pitches/AB ratio is comparable to former leadoff man Damon. The drawback is that Lugo is now 30 and just enjoyed his best season. Statistically speaking he is unlikely to repeat the .295/.355/39SB line that makes him an attractive leadoff hitter. He is also unsigned beyond 2006 and could be very costly if the Sox were unable to broker a longer term deal.
In the end, it seems that Lugo-for-Marte makes sense only if the deal is contingent upon a two- or three-year extension for Lugo. He is a known commodity with leadoff potential and solid defense for a club that appears to be moving in a pitching-and-defense direction. He provides the Sox several years to develop or attract a shortstop, while the Sox already have that at 3B in Lowell/Youkillis.
The Renteria deal brought Andy Marte to Boston. He would appear to have can't-miss written all over him. According to Baseball Prospectus his closest historical peers are Adrian Beltre and Brooks Robinson. Elsewhere he's been compared to power hitting, slick fielding Matt Williams. Given those kind of credentials it will be difficult to keep him sitting behind Lowell for two years and it makes little sense to move him around the field. Perhaps Lowell could move and enhance his value, though he is a proven gold glove third baseman.
The downside to Marte is his suspected UCL (elbow) problem. According to some sources the suspicion about the injury scuttled at least one prior deal for the one-time Braves prospect. The Sox have denied the rumor though BaseballProspectus.com thought it valid enough to repeat it later. What may lend credence to this rumor (or may have spawned it) is Marte's lackluster performance at the end of the year. He batted only .140 with 7 BB in 57 at bats for Atlanta, primarily at the end of the season. Moreover, he has struggled considerably in winter ball, hitting only .234 with 2 HR and 9RBI in 33 games.
The big problem with dealing prospects is that you do not know what you're giving up for several years. Marte could become the Beltre/Robinson/Williams type player that he has been projected to be. In that case a little patience would benefit the Sox considering the prospects that could begin to thrive in 2007/08 (Papelbon, Lester, Hansen, Delcarmen, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Moss, Murphy, and potentially Marte). The Sox could be in a similar position to the 2005 White Sox whose young talent has positioned them well to be the first repeat WS winner of the millenium.
In Lugo, the Sox would acquire a solid defender whose offensive capabilities are similar to their recently departed shortstop. Also, his career 3.82 pitches/AB ratio is comparable to former leadoff man Damon. The drawback is that Lugo is now 30 and just enjoyed his best season. Statistically speaking he is unlikely to repeat the .295/.355/39SB line that makes him an attractive leadoff hitter. He is also unsigned beyond 2006 and could be very costly if the Sox were unable to broker a longer term deal.
In the end, it seems that Lugo-for-Marte makes sense only if the deal is contingent upon a two- or three-year extension for Lugo. He is a known commodity with leadoff potential and solid defense for a club that appears to be moving in a pitching-and-defense direction. He provides the Sox several years to develop or attract a shortstop, while the Sox already have that at 3B in Lowell/Youkillis.
posted by Andy Vanasse at 6:00 AM
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