Sox after Izturis?

Bill Madden at the New York Daily News claims that the Red Sox are looking to deal for the Dodgers' Cesar Izturis when he comes off the DL. I hope that this is only wishful thinking from a NYC beat writer. Though "Gon-A" (sounds right to a Bostonian) has a miserable .186 avg and .275 OBP this season Izturis is not particularly better. Over their careers Izturis has a barely-better OBP (.311 vs .296). Over the course of an entire season that puts Izturis on base 6-8 more times than Gonzalez. Izturis is three years younger and has better speed, though Gon-A the better fielder and has slightly better power when he connects.

Were Izturis not coming off elbow surgery (March 28) this might make sense, but not now. The Sox are much better letting Pedroia develop in Pawtucket and bringing him in later in the year. If they wait until Sept 1 he can completement Cora as a reserve infielder and -- if he proves as capable with the glove -- could replace him on the playoff roster. This team needs the bats off the bench.

Left at the Plate

Q: What makes a $130M team cringe?
A: The sight of a left-handed starting pitcher.

Remember that great feeling you had when the Sox jumped out 5-1 this season? Well, consider this. In the first week of the season the Sox faced only one left-handed starter. They barely escaped with a 2-1 victory on April 8 in Baltimore. Since that day the Sox have gone 9-10 to slip into a first place tie with the Yuckies powered in large part by a 3-6 showing in games started by an opposing lefty.

The Sox are being left at the plate by lefty hurlers. In the ten games that southpaws have started against the Sox their teams are 6-4. If that does not sound impressive, just extrapolate it to a full 162-game season: 97-65, good enough for a spot in the playoffs.

What may be more worrisome is that the numbers could easily be worse. Three of the Sox four victories were one-run affairs that occurred in the first ten days of the season: 2-1 over Bruce Chen and the O's, 2-1 over ageless Jamie Moyer and his Mariner teammates, and 3-2 over Jarrod Washburn and the M's. The Sox did not score more than two earned runs off the LHP starters in those games. In fact, the Sox have scored three earned runs off a lefty starter only once this year (3 from Gustavo Chacin on April 12).

With the dismal showing this weekend, opposing lefties now have an ERA against the Sox roughly half their season ERA (2.25 vs 4.34). Want a good comparison for opposing lefty starters? Check out the lifetime stats of Greg Maddux. When you start every game against a lefty as if you were facing vintage Maddux you're in trouble.

But the Sox have not yet faced a top LHP except perhaps emerging hurler Cliff Lee. Overall the lefties the Sox have faced were generally mid-to-late rotation guys who had an average ERA of 4.34. None sported an ERA under 3.00 (Lee was 2.97 after shutting down the Sox) . They've been shutdown twice each by D'Rays southpaws Kazmir (12.2 IP, 9H, 2ER) and former Sox Fossum (12.1IP, 9H, 2ER). Do you see a trend here? If the D'Rays can run out lefties that shut down the Sox then their season is doomed. Sure, they may make the playoffs by beating up on RHP but to what avail? If the Jays take a spot is there any chance that the Sox slip past them without facing Sox-killer Ted Lilly and Chacin? Or meeting RJ twice with the Yuckies? The Sox are not likely to emerge as the AL Champion, if they even make it past the first round, unless they address this difficulty.

Updated: Posted the table as an image rather than debug the HTML.

Pitching Groups at Spring Training

According to the Globe's Gordon Edes here are the Sox pitching groups in camp:

Group 1--Van Buren, Martinez (Edgar, not Pedro), Bausher, Pauley, Vermilyea
Group 2--Wakefield, Clement, Arroyo, Serrano
Group 3--Schilling, Beckett, Papelbon, Alvarez, Lester
Group 4--DiNardo, Bumatay, Breslow, Holtz, Seibel
Group 5--Timlin, Tavarez, Riske, Foulke, Seanez
Group 6--Ginter, Delcarmen, Hansen, Meredith, Nunez

Any question that the Sox are trying to bring along the young hard throwers (Beckett, Papelbon, and Lester) by pairing them with Schil?

Group 1 basically puts together the bleeding edge guys and Group4 has the few with a shot as making the team as the LHP reliever.

What really stands out from this is the makeup of groups 5 and 6. It seems like Delcarmen, Meredith, and Hansen could have benefitted greatly from spending time around some of the established setup guys, particularly Timlin. And if Hansen is the closer of the future why not pair him with Foulke? Any chance they're protecting Foulke's ego by shielding him? (Ironic note: as I post I'm listening to Rod Stewart grind out "(I Know) I'm Losing You" -- I wonder if that's what the Sox-Foulke relationship may be this year?).

A pair of Sox

Finally, something real to discuss. The on-again, off-again Manny-for-Miggy stuff is boring and the "Patience, there's plenty of time" mantra from Yawkey Way is frustrating. Apparently, the Sox brass has been at work, just not where we expected them.

The latest deal was for Graffanino, a one year, $2.05M deal. This will be a good deal for the Sox. Graffy was one of the few good stories for the Sox after the All Star break (okay, after the trade...) when little seemed to be going right. Short contract, relatively low dollars is perfect for the FA who surprised the Sox by accepting arbitration. If he sticks with the Sox past Opening Day, a question in many minds, he is a super-utility guy who may battle Cora for regular SS duties. If not, he's easy to move because the commitment is not onerous to anyone who needs a productive bat off the bench or a decent 2B to fill a hole. His short-dollar signing also gives the Sox a host of possibilities if Pedroia is not ready for regular duty by 2007.

Slightly earlier in the day the Sox inked Julien Tavarez to a 2 year deal with an option year. This deal is harder to call. Tavarez has a rubber arm and can pitch on back-to-back-to-back days when needed. The downside is that he appears to wear down late in the season. His mental and physical breakdown in the 2004 NLDS winged him for the WS. This year was little different; his Sept/Oct numbers were not all that impressive. His control has gotten much better throughout his career, with K/BB ratios of around 2.5 for the past few seasons. He does not strike players out (K/9 is a mediocre 5.21) but gets ground ball outs (avg 15 GDP over the past 5 years and nearly over 1.75 groundball-to-flyball ratio). The biggest question mark is, as with many FA, the switch between leagues. His biggest successes have come in the NL.

Regardless, the revamped bullpen is considerably stronger than the pen of the last two or three years. Timlin, Mota, and Tavarez offer solid arms who have closed in the past. They are good insurance if Foulke does not recover. Hansen, Delcarmen, Van Buren, Arroyo are young(ish) arms that can eat up plenty of innings and, for the most part, throw the ball past batters. Seanz is a lefty killer even if there is no LHP in the bullpen beside DiNardo (whom I hope gets a legitimate shot). For once the Sox have abandoned the Dan Duquette of signing all the old guys who have questionable medical history and hoping one sticks. They've got a good mix of experience and youth, power and control, strikeout and groundball pitchers.

Now if only they can get someone to catch 'Teks throws to second base or chase down the occasional flyball into the triangle...

Silence breeds insanity

The last of the year is perhaps the only week of the year that baseball is closed for business. Sure, there are some deals consumated but they're primarily lower-level deals. The principals spend the holidays away from the office just like the rest of us so little of significance takes place.

In a frantic hot stove season the relative silence from the baseball offices gives rise to insanity. There are more rumored deals now than ever. Frustrated players like Miguel Tejada make comments about their frustration and instantly he becomes the face that launched a thousand rumors. Not surprisingly the deals are generally quite one-sided.

Another thing that happens is that rumors merge and distort. A perfect example of this is a new 4 team deal involving the Red Sox, Orioles, Mets, and D'Rays. It basically takes parts of separate proposed deals that involved various combinations of these teams individually. The basics of this deal has the Sox landing Tejada and Garthright; Mets get Manny; Orioles get Clement, Lugo, and Benson; D'Rays get lots of young arms. There are simply too many moving parts to this deal for it to happen. Every corner would love to see it (except perhaps the O's).

Should the Sox revive Lugo-for-Marte?

A year ago three of their top ten prospects were shortstops but a lot has changed since then. Renteria was a bust in Boston and shown the door to Atlanta. Hanley Ramirez is gone via the Beckett trade. Dustin Pedroia has crossed the infield to 2B and appears to be much more likely to stand out as a 2B than a SS at the MLB level. If I recall correctly, the next SS prospect was a then-19 year old kid who is long on raw potential but short on experience. The Sox are, obviously, without a shortstop for 2006 and the foreseeable future.

The Renteria deal brought Andy Marte to Boston. He would appear to have can't-miss written all over him. According to Baseball Prospectus his closest historical peers are Adrian Beltre and Brooks Robinson. Elsewhere he's been compared to power hitting, slick fielding Matt Williams. Given those kind of credentials it will be difficult to keep him sitting behind Lowell for two years and it makes little sense to move him around the field. Perhaps Lowell could move and enhance his value, though he is a proven gold glove third baseman.

The downside to Marte is his suspected UCL (elbow) problem. According to some sources the suspicion about the injury scuttled at least one prior deal for the one-time Braves prospect. The Sox have denied the rumor though BaseballProspectus.com thought it valid enough to repeat it later. What may lend credence to this rumor (or may have spawned it) is Marte's lackluster performance at the end of the year. He batted only .140 with 7 BB in 57 at bats for Atlanta, primarily at the end of the season. Moreover, he has struggled considerably in winter ball, hitting only .234 with 2 HR and 9RBI in 33 games.

The big problem with dealing prospects is that you do not know what you're giving up for several years. Marte could become the Beltre/Robinson/Williams type player that he has been projected to be. In that case a little patience would benefit the Sox considering the prospects that could begin to thrive in 2007/08 (Papelbon, Lester, Hansen, Delcarmen, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Moss, Murphy, and potentially Marte). The Sox could be in a similar position to the 2005 White Sox whose young talent has positioned them well to be the first repeat WS winner of the millenium.

In Lugo, the Sox would acquire a solid defender whose offensive capabilities are similar to their recently departed shortstop. Also, his career 3.82 pitches/AB ratio is comparable to former leadoff man Damon. The drawback is that Lugo is now 30 and just enjoyed his best season. Statistically speaking he is unlikely to repeat the .295/.355/39SB line that makes him an attractive leadoff hitter. He is also unsigned beyond 2006 and could be very costly if the Sox were unable to broker a longer term deal.

In the end, it seems that Lugo-for-Marte makes sense only if the deal is contingent upon a two- or three-year extension for Lugo. He is a known commodity with leadoff potential and solid defense for a club that appears to be moving in a pitching-and-defense direction. He provides the Sox several years to develop or attract a shortstop, while the Sox already have that at 3B in Lowell/Youkillis.

Manny-for-Miggy back on?

More conflicting reports on whether there really is potential for a swap of the Sox' and Orioles top run producers. According to the Boston Herald the O's are rethinking their decision to deal Tejada. “There is absolutely no deal we find acceptable to trade this very special player to another team,” an Orioles official said yesterday. Calling this a change of direction may be an overstatement; in reality they never wanted to deal him and they only listened to offers (never sought them) after Tejada's infamous "change of scenary" interview. Across the newstand, the Boston Globe suggests that the O's may be calling for final bids on Tejada this week in an attempt to resolve whether to keep him or trade him.

If the Cubs, Angels, and Red Sox are the leading suitors for Tejada then things may be breaking the Sox way for the first time this offseason. The Angels do not appear to be a match for what Baltimore needs in the short term and the Cubs may not be willing to deal.

My brother-in-law lives in the shadows of Camden Yards. He says that he will not renew his ticket package if the Orioles deal Tejada, especially if Bedard is part of the deal. Whether or not he carries through with that statement it certainly makes clear that the Orioles need to return a bona fide All Star in a deal for Tejada so a package of prospects from the Angels seems very unlikely.

It appears that the Cubs and Orioles are both backing away from rumored deals that featured Tejada and Mark Prior (either in a two team deal or a three team deal that included Oakland's Zito). There is considerable backlash (scroll down) against this deal in Chicago and Hendry may back off because of that alone. Similarly, dealing Bedard along with Tejada would go against the BAL organization's public statements that the future glory of the franchise lies on the shoulders of their young pitchers.

With the Tejada's most agressive suitor backing away, the rumor mill has cranked up a notch on a Sox-Orioles swap. The latest believable iteration has Manny and Clement headed down I-95 for Tejada. The problem with this deal is the $22M salary difference in what is owed to the Boston duo. The Sox could help bridge the gap by agreeing to take on Manny's deferred money ($11M due after his two option years). Another alternative would be to deal Arroyo, who will probably earn less than half of Clement's $9.75M in arbitration, instead of Clement.

Washing the Sox

There is no question, in 2005 the magic that lead to the Red Sox first WS championship in 86 was washed out of them. The insight displayed by Theo and he front office that landed Cabrera and Mientkiewicz in time to provide solid defense and timely hitting for the stretch run disappeared. Was it only luck? Renteria was a bust and there's considerable debate as to whether Clement is salvageable (forget the playoffs, his second half decline is now a three year trend). Only the Graffanino pickup really paid off for the Sox.

While hopes ran high at the All Star break it was obvious that only a healthy, 2004-form Schilling would help the club. They managed to come from behind a few times but, more often than not, their bullpen blinked before their opponents' and close games were few and far between. It's no surprise that the Red Sox led the league in both 7+ run wins and 7+ run losses.

This year is concluding with a disappointing Hot Stove season. It's not a horrible offseason, just a very disappointing one. The Sox started well, landing Beckett, Lowell, and Mota for a package of prospects (Sanchez and Ramirez appear to be two who will make their mark in Florida). However, it's been steadily down hill from there. Van Buren may be a big help in the pen, though he struggled with his control in the majors. If he finds his pitches his K/9 and K/BB numbers suggest he'll be a plus setup man. By all accounts Loretta will be a solid 2B in the field and at bat, though whether he's a considerable upgrade over what Graffanino's second half is doubtful.

The deals that were not made are what really makes the offseason disappointing. Losing Damon without having a deal in place hurts. Simply put, when he scored the Sox won and he scored a lot (averaging ~120 runs per season). He was the catalyst for the Sox. It's not a disaster considering the $52/4yr deal it took to take Damon away. He has begun his decline and by the end of the deal he won't be a bargain (he's not now, either).

Missing out on Burnett is too bad though I think he may be the most overrated pitcher of the decade. Build, form, etc may all be fantastic but he doesn't have "it". Bob Cousy coined the phrase "killer instinct" and it's what Burnett lacks. He appears lacsadasical during games. He would wilt in one of the bigger markets like Boston or New York. $55M/5yrs? Too much.

B.J. Ryan? He's only been a closer for one season, though he showed that he had the stuff to close in the AL East. He throws pitches by batters and is a fierce competitor. He is a real closer. The problem is that the Sox already have their closer of the future in Craig Hansen. Hansen has more pitches and unbelievable upside. There was no reason to sign Ryan for 5 years and the dollars were ridiculous.

Missing out on Troy Glaus is also too bad. His big bat would have helped pick up some of the offense lost when Damon skipped town (albeit by a different route) and he would be a good backup plan should Manny play elsewhere in 2006. However the price (Orlando Hudson and Biguel Bautista) is much more than the Sox could afford at this point.

The biggest problem with these deals is that most of them have gone directly to their competition. The Yuckies biggest holes were in their bullpen and CF. They've filled those well with Farnsworth, Villone, Dotel, and Damon and -- with one notable exception -- did not overpay. The Blue Jays put themselves on the map with two signings and now are poised to reshuffle the AL standings for the first time in almost a decade. The Jays' rotation of Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Lilly, and Towers will match the current Sox rotation with it's many health questions at the top.

The current moves remake the Sox as more of a pitching-and-defense team. With that in mind the potential pick up of Alex Gonzalez on a three year deal makes sense. He's a solid defender with an average bat for a middle infielder. The Sox have no one to take his place (save Pedroia, should he move back which is doubtful) and they'll need to prevent as many runs as possible. Lugo would provide more "game" -- both offensively and defensively -- but the cost will be high and the Sox have already given away a lot this offseason.

I'd like to see Millwood in the rotation if he really is beyond the elbow and shoulder problems that have slowed him in the past. The problem, again, will be length and dollars. It looks like it will take an expensive four or five year deal and that will leave the Sox short of cash in a much richer market next year. He comes with too many questions to make that commitment.

CF is a much bigger problem. The Sox lost on Encarnacion who just signed with the Cards. He would have been a great fourth outfielder if Damon signed, a suitable CF when he left, or corner guy if the Sox move Manny or Nixon. Perenally playoff OF Reggie Sanders has signed and the thin market is thinning. Forget Lucchino's suggestion that the offseason is not even to its midway point. When the market is sold out it does not matter how much time is left. Instead the question is how much you will have to pay and the answer, now, is much too much.

As constructed this team will be much like the team that began 2004. They will win their fair share of games. They will play slightly better than .500 and will be within striking distance of the top through the All Star game. But they will be uninspiring. There will be no one to get excited about unless Papelbon catches fire and begins to fulfill the promise we've seen. They will finish the season with 85-88 wins but watch the Yuckies pull steadily away as they take their first WS of the millenia. The Sox will be in a dog fight for second place in the East and for the WC with the A's.